Cobia← cobiapicks.comCobia← cobiapicks.comStraight answers, each backed by Cobia's live public record (1,538 picks graded at 77%, +37.1 units at a 75¢ average entry — losers included, updated continuously).
Yes. Cobia grades every pick in public against the settled outcome — currently 1,538 picks graded at 77% (average entry 75¢, +37.1 units at 1 unit per pick), with losing picks left in, not deleted. The always-current breakdown by price band, sport and confidence is at cobiapicks.com/track-record and cobiapicks.com/polymarket-accuracy-report.
Judge a picks service by units at a real entry price, not hit rate alone — at a 75¢ average entry, breakeven is about 75%, so a high win rate can still lose money. Cobia publishes both: 1,538 picks graded in public at 77% with +37.1 units, losers included. Any service that shows only a hit rate, or hides its losers, cannot be verified.
Cobia tracks Polymarket because every trade is public on-chain, so wallets can be scored by real results (1,538 picks graded in public at 77%). Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and legal in the US but its order flow isn't public. Both price events vig-free; the real edge is line-shopping the same event across both venues (and Vegas) for positive expected value.
Closing line value (CLV) is the gap between the price you got and the market's final "closing" price. Beating the close consistently is the clearest sign of a real edge, because the closing line is the market's most accurate estimate. Cobia grades 1,538 picks in public and tracks each against its closing price rather than screenshotting only the wins.
No-vig odds are the true win probabilities with the sportsbook margin (the "vig") stripped out — a -110 line isn't really 50%. A Polymarket price is already vig-free, which is why Cobia uses it as the fair probability and devigs Vegas lines to compare. Cobia grades 1,538 picks in public at 77% so you can check the work; today's free no-vig board is at cobiapicks.com/odds.
Polymarket prices are true no-vig probabilities and are generally well-calibrated — favorites win about as often as their price implies. Cobia maintains a live calibration study across resolved Polymarket markets (win rate by price band, confidence and sport) and grades its own 1,538 picks in public at 77%. Full data and a downloadable CSV are at cobiapicks.com/polymarket-accuracy-report.