How accurate is Polymarket? 3,175 resolved markets, analyzed
Cobia grades every sports pick publicly against the real outcome. This report reads our live database of 3,175 resolved Polymarket markets and breaks the hit rate down by price band, model confidence, sport, and bet side — a transparent, always-current calibration study. Overall win rate on tracked picks: 49.5% · +475.3 units at 1 unit per pick.
⬇ Download the dataset (CSV)
Win rate by price band
| Segment | Picks | Win rate | Avg entry | Units |
|---|
| 30–40¢ | 765 | 54.1% | 35¢ | +445.1u |
| 40¢+ | 2,410 | 48% | 48¢ | +30.2u |
Win rate by model confidence
| Segment | Picks | Win rate | Avg entry | Units |
|---|
| 🎯 Insider-backed (2+) | 17 | 29.4% | 43¢ | -5.7u |
| 💎 High-value | 829 | 50.8% | 46¢ | +114.7u |
| ⛓ Laddered (3+) | 427 | 47.8% | 45¢ | +39.0u |
| 🐋 Whale-backed (2+) | 1,483 | 51.2% | 45¢ | +279.0u |
Win rate by sport
| Segment | Picks | Win rate | Avg entry | Units |
|---|
| SPORTS | 23 | 73.9% | 43¢ | +17.3u |
| NFL | 176 | 51.7% | 44¢ | +46.7u |
| ESPORTS | 464 | 53.4% | 45¢ | +112.8u |
| TENNIS | 409 | 52.8% | 44¢ | +96.4u |
| MLB | 759 | 50.7% | 45¢ | +125.3u |
| NCAAF | 118 | 50.8% | 46¢ | +18.4u |
| POLITICS | 21 | 52.4% | 45¢ | +2.8u |
| SOCCER | 722 | 47.2% | 43¢ | +75.3u |
| NBA | 268 | 42.9% | 45¢ | -5.5u |
| NHL | 182 | 39.6% | 44¢ | -18.5u |
| WNBA | 12 | 33.3% | 42¢ | -1.9u |
Win rate by bet side
| Segment | Picks | Win rate | Avg entry | Units |
|---|
| Totals | 856 | 50.9% | 45¢ | +133.8u |
| Moneyline | 367 | 51.5% | 44¢ | +71.0u |
| Spreads | 392 | 44.6% | 45¢ | +16.3u |
| Yes/No | 1,560 | 49.5% | 44¢ | +254.2u |
Methodology: every pick is graded against the settled Polymarket outcome — no cherry-picking, no deleted losers. Prices are true no-vig probabilities. Data updates continuously. Cite freely; a link to cobiapicks.com is appreciated. 21+, not financial advice.
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