CobiaTampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles — Prediction & Pitchers
Fri, Aug 21, 7:15 PM ET · Camden Yards
Tampa Bay Rays
76-51
VS7:15 PM ET
Baltimore Orioles
61-67
BAL 55% on the money line; model leans OVER 8.5.
⚾ Starting Pitchers
TB
Freddy Peralta
5.27 ERA · struggling · 3.3 R/5 allowed
BAL
Trevor Rogers
4.15 ERA · steady · 1.9 R/5 allowed
📊 Model Read vs Market
TB to win44%mkt 46%
BAL to win56%mkt 55%
Total (model)9.6 Rline 8.5
Biggest edge: BAL ML — model 56% vs market 55% (+170pts).
💣 Home Run Watch
- Christian Encarnacion-Strand BAL — 17.4% to go yard (6 HR)
- Pete Alonso BAL — 17% to go yard (29 HR)
- Samuel Basallo BAL — 16.1% to go yard (16 HR)
- Coby Mayo BAL — 15.7% to go yard (17 HR)
🌤️ Ballpark & Weather
Camden Yards · park factor 105 (#4) · Patchy rain nearby, 66°F, wind 12 mph — Rain risk — could delay; wet ball
🔥 Hot Bats
TB Junior Caminero .309 AVG · 35 HR · .896 OPS
BAL Pete Alonso .269 AVG · 29 HR · .858 OPS
🩹 Injury Report
TB
- Cole Sulser 15-Day-IL Spasms
- Griffin Jax 15-Day-IL Soreness
- Manuel Rodriguez 60-Day-IL Surgery
- Edwin Uceta 60-Day-IL Strain
- Jake Fraley 60-Day-IL Surgery
BAL
- Blaze Alexander 10-Day-IL Fracture
- Felix Bautista 60-Day-IL Surgery
- Ryan Helsley 60-Day-IL Inflammation
- Colin Selby 60-Day-IL Surgery
- Ryan Mountcastle 60-Day-IL Strain
📈 Recent Form
TB 2-3 last 5 · L1
LWLWL
BAL 1-4 last 5 · W1
WLLLL
🎯 The Cobia Pick
Our read: BAL 56% to win, best value on BAL ML. See the live smart-money board, conviction, and the exact market at cobiapicks.com.
Verified smart-money picks, graded in public. 21+ · not financial advice.
FAQ
Who is pitching in Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles?
Freddy Peralta (5.27 ERA) starts for TB; Trevor Rogers (4.15 ERA) starts for BAL.
What is the prediction for Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles?
Our model favors BAL at 56% to win, with a projected 9.6 total runs.