CobiaSan Diego Padres vs New York Mets — Prediction & Pitchers
Tue, Aug 18, 7:10 PM ET · Citi Field
San Diego Padres
67-59
VS7:10 PM ET
New York Mets
57-69
SD 52% on the money line; model leans UNDER 8.5.
⚾ Starting Pitchers
SD
Robbie Ray
3.28 ERA · steady · 2.2 R/5 allowed
NYM
Zac Thornton
2.78 ERA · steady · 2.0 R/5 allowed
📊 Model Read vs Market
SD to win50%mkt 52%
NYM to win50%mkt 49%
Total (model)7.1 Rline 8.5
Biggest edge: NYM ML — model 50% vs market 49% (+100pts).
💣 Home Run Watch
- Francisco Alvarez NYM — 14.2% to go yard (13 HR)
- Francisco Lindor NYM — 12.8% to go yard (12 HR)
- Ty France SD — 12.6% to go yard (17 HR)
- Manny Machado SD — 12.5% to go yard (23 HR)
🌤️ Ballpark & Weather
Citi Field · park factor 97 (#26) · Mist, 71°F, wind 4 mph — Fair — no weather edge
🔥 Hot Bats
SD Fernando Tatis Jr. .279 AVG · 23 HR · .772 OPS
NYM Carson Benge .273 AVG · 21 HR · .750 OPS
🩹 Injury Report
SD
- Nick Pivetta 60-Day-IL Strain
- Jason Adam 60-Day-IL Strain
- Miguel Andujar 10-Day-IL Fracture
- Samad Taylor 10-Day-IL Strain
- Joe Musgrove 60-Day-IL Inflammation
NYM
- Juan Soto 10-Day-IL Strain
- Mark Vientos 10-Day-IL Fracture
- Devin Williams 15-Day-IL Strain
- Cionel Perez 15-Day-IL Strain
- Austin Warren 15-Day-IL Strain
📈 Recent Form
SD 3-2 last 5 · W2
WWLWL
NYM 4-1 last 5 · L1
LWWWW
🎯 The Cobia Pick
Our read: SD 50% to win, best value on NYM ML. See the live smart-money board, conviction, and the exact market at cobiapicks.com.
Verified smart-money picks, graded in public. 21+ · not financial advice.
FAQ
Who is pitching in San Diego Padres vs New York Mets?
Robbie Ray (3.28 ERA) starts for SD; Zac Thornton (2.78 ERA) starts for NYM.
What is the prediction for San Diego Padres vs New York Mets?
Our model favors SD at 50% to win, with a projected 7.1 total runs.