CobiaSan Diego Padres vs New York Mets — Prediction & Pitchers
Mon, Aug 17, 7:10 PM ET · Citi Field
San Diego Padres
67-58
VS7:10 PM ET
New York Mets
56-69
NYM 54% on the money line; model leans UNDER 8.5.
⚾ Starting Pitchers
SD
Walker Buehler
4.88 ERA · sharp · 1.9 R/5 allowed
NYM
Nolan McLean
3.42 ERA · steady · 2.2 R/5 allowed
📊 Model Read vs Market
SD to win49%mkt 47%
NYM to win51%mkt 54%
Total (model)7.6 Rline 8.5
Biggest edge: SD ML — model 49% vs market 47% (+290pts).
💣 Home Run Watch
- Francisco Alvarez NYM — 14% to go yard (13 HR)
- Ty France SD — 12.8% to go yard (17 HR)
- Francisco Lindor NYM — 12.8% to go yard (12 HR)
- Manny Machado SD — 12.7% to go yard (23 HR)
🌤️ Ballpark & Weather
Citi Field · park factor 97 (#26) · Clear , 45°F, wind 9 mph — Cold — dense air suppresses (lean Under)
🔥 Hot Bats
SD Fernando Tatis Jr. .280 AVG · 23 HR · .778 OPS
NYM Carson Benge .272 AVG · 21 HR · .750 OPS
🩹 Injury Report
SD
- Joe Musgrove 60-Day-IL Inflammation
- Nick Pivetta 60-Day-IL Strain
- Lucas Giolito 15-Day-IL Inflammation
- Miguel Andujar 10-Day-IL Fracture
- Samad Taylor 10-Day-IL Strain
NYM
- Juan Soto 10-Day-IL Strain
- Mark Vientos 10-Day-IL Fracture
- Devin Williams 15-Day-IL Strain
- Cionel Perez 15-Day-IL Strain
- Austin Warren 15-Day-IL Strain
📈 Recent Form
SD 4-1 last 5 · W3
WWWLW
NYM 3-2 last 5 · L2
LLWWW
🎯 The Cobia Pick
Our read: NYM 51% to win, best value on SD ML. See the live smart-money board, conviction, and the exact market at cobiapicks.com.
Verified smart-money picks, graded in public. 21+ · not financial advice.
FAQ
Who is pitching in San Diego Padres vs New York Mets?
Walker Buehler (4.88 ERA) starts for SD; Nolan McLean (3.42 ERA) starts for NYM.
What is the prediction for San Diego Padres vs New York Mets?
Our model favors NYM at 51% to win, with a projected 7.6 total runs.