CobiaPhiladelphia Phillies vs New York Mets — Prediction & Pitchers
Thu, Sep 17, 7:15 PM ET · Citi Field
Philadelphia Phillies
84-68
VS7:15 PM ET
New York Mets
69-83
NYM 56% on the money line; model leans UNDER 8.5.
⚾ Starting Pitchers
PHI
Aaron Nola
4.69 ERA · sharp · 1.4 R/5 allowed
NYM
Nolan McLean
3.24 ERA · steady · 2.0 R/5 allowed
📊 Model Read vs Market
PHI to win52%mkt 45%
NYM to win48%mkt 56%
Total (model)7.5 Rline 8.5
Biggest edge: PHI ML — model 52% vs market 45% (+790pts).
💣 Home Run Watch
- Juan Soto NYM — 17.8% to go yard (25 HR)
- Francisco Alvarez NYM — 17.6% to go yard (15 HR)
- Mark Vientos NYM — 17.4% to go yard (13 HR)
- Francisco Lindor NYM — 17.2% to go yard (20 HR)
🌤️ Ballpark & Weather
Citi Field · park factor 97 (#26) · Clear , 72°F, wind 3 mph — Fair — no weather edge
🔥 Hot Bats
PHI Bryce Harper .270 AVG · 45 HR · .879 OPS
NYM Carson Benge .270 AVG · 25 HR · .746 OPS
🩹 Injury Report
PHI
- Jesus Luzardo 15-Day-IL Inflammation
- Felix Reyes 60-Day-IL Fracture
- Caleb Kilian 15-Day-IL Strain
- Brad Keller 60-Day-IL Surgery
- Johan Rojas 60-Day-IL Surgery
NYM
- Daniel Duarte 15-Day-IL Strain
- Robert Stock 15-Day-IL Finger
- Devin Williams 15-Day-IL Strain
- Cionel Perez 15-Day-IL Strain
- Jorge Polanco 60-Day-IL Surgery
📈 Recent Form
PHI 2-3 last 5 · L2
LLWLW
NYM 1-4 last 5 · W1
WLLLL
🎯 The Cobia Pick
Our read: PHI 52% to win, best value on PHI ML. See the live smart-money board, conviction, and the exact market at cobiapicks.com.
Verified smart-money picks, graded in public. 21+ · not financial advice.
FAQ
Who is pitching in Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets?
Aaron Nola (4.69 ERA) starts for PHI; Nolan McLean (3.24 ERA) starts for NYM.
What is the prediction for Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets?
Our model favors PHI at 52% to win, with a projected 7.5 total runs.