CobiaNew York Mets vs Atlanta Braves — Prediction & Pitchers
Wed, Aug 12, 7:15 PM ET · Truist Park
New York Mets
53-68
VS7:15 PM ET
Atlanta Braves
72-48
ATL 59% on the money line; model leans UNDER 8.5.
⚾ Starting Pitchers
NYM
Zac Thornton
2.52 ERA · steady · 1.9 R/5 allowed
ATL
Tyler Mahle
4.83 ERA · sharp · 1.6 R/5 allowed
📊 Model Read vs Market
NYM to win43%mkt 42%
ATL to win57%mkt 59%
Total (model)7.9 Rline 8.5
Biggest edge: NYM ML — model 43% vs market 42% (+120pts).
💣 Home Run Watch
- Francisco Alvarez NYM — 20.4% to go yard (13 HR)
- Matt Olson ATL — 18.5% to go yard (35 HR)
- Francisco Lindor NYM — 16.2% to go yard (11 HR)
- Drake Baldwin ATL — 15.6% to go yard (20 HR)
🌤️ Ballpark & Weather
Truist Park · park factor 100 (#11) · Clear, 72°F, wind 4 mph — Fair — no weather edge
🔥 Hot Bats
NYM Carson Benge .272 AVG · 21 HR · .744 OPS
ATL Matt Olson .293 AVG · 35 HR · .897 OPS
🩹 Injury Report
NYM
- Devin Williams 15-Day-IL Strain
- Cionel Perez 15-Day-IL Strain
- Austin Warren 15-Day-IL Strain
- Juan Soto 10-Day-IL Strain
- Justin Hagenman 60-Day-IL Fracture
ATL
- Spencer Schwellenbach 60-Day-IL Surgery
- Spencer Strider 60-Day-IL Inflammation
- Robert Suarez 15-Day-IL Soreness
- Reynaldo Lopez 15-Day-IL Inflammation
- Joe Jimenez 60-Day-IL Surgery
📈 Recent Form
NYM 3-2 last 5 · W1
WLWWL
ATL 2-3 last 5 · L2
LLWLW
🎯 The Cobia Pick
Our read: ATL 57% to win, best value on NYM ML. See the live smart-money board, conviction, and the exact market at cobiapicks.com.
Verified smart-money picks, graded in public. 21+ · not financial advice.
FAQ
Who is pitching in New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves?
Zac Thornton (2.52 ERA) starts for NYM; Tyler Mahle (4.83 ERA) starts for ATL.
What is the prediction for New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves?
Our model favors ATL at 57% to win, with a projected 7.9 total runs.