CobiaNew York Mets vs Atlanta Braves — Prediction & Pitchers
Tue, Aug 11, 7:15 PM ET · Truist Park
New York Mets
53-67
VS7:15 PM ET
Atlanta Braves
71-48
ATL 55% on the money line; model leans UNDER 8.5.
⚾ Starting Pitchers
NYM
Nolan McLean
3.51 ERA · steady · 2.4 R/5 allowed
ATL
Martín Pérez
3.14 ERA · sharp · 1.4 R/5 allowed
📊 Model Read vs Market
NYM to win31%mkt 46%
ATL to win69%mkt 55%
Total (model)7.7 Rline 8.5
Biggest edge: ATL ML — model 69% vs market 55% (+1480pts).
💣 Home Run Watch
- Matt Olson ATL — 20.3% to go yard (34 HR)
- Francisco Alvarez NYM — 18.4% to go yard (13 HR)
- Drake Baldwin ATL — 17.2% to go yard (20 HR)
- Ronald Acuña Jr. ATL — 16.6% to go yard (12 HR)
🌤️ Ballpark & Weather
Truist Park · park factor 100 (#11) · Clear , 77°F, wind 4 mph — Fair — no weather edge
🔥 Hot Bats
NYM Carson Benge .270 AVG · 21 HR · .742 OPS
ATL Matt Olson .292 AVG · 34 HR · .891 OPS
🩹 Injury Report
NYM
- Devin Williams 15-Day-IL Strain
- Cionel Perez 15-Day-IL Strain
- Austin Warren 15-Day-IL Strain
- Juan Soto 10-Day-IL Strain
- Justin Hagenman 60-Day-IL Fracture
ATL
- Spencer Schwellenbach 60-Day-IL Surgery
- Spencer Strider 60-Day-IL Inflammation
- Robert Suarez 15-Day-IL Soreness
- Reynaldo Lopez 15-Day-IL Inflammation
- Joe Jimenez 60-Day-IL Surgery
📈 Recent Form
NYM 4-1 last 5 · W2
WWLWW
ATL 2-3 last 5 · W1
WLLWL
🎯 The Cobia Pick
Our read: ATL 69% to win, best value on ATL ML. See the live smart-money board, conviction, and the exact market at cobiapicks.com.
Verified smart-money picks, graded in public. 21+ · not financial advice.
FAQ
Who is pitching in New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves?
Nolan McLean (3.51 ERA) starts for NYM; Martín Pérez (3.14 ERA) starts for ATL.
What is the prediction for New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves?
Our model favors ATL at 69% to win, with a projected 7.7 total runs.