CobiaMiami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies — Prediction & Pitchers
Mon, Aug 17, 6:40 PM ET · Citizens Bank Park
Miami Marlins
64-61
VS6:40 PM ET
Philadelphia Phillies
67-58
PHI 69% on the money line; model leans UNDER 8.5.
⚾ Starting Pitchers
MIA
Janson Junk
4.41 ERA · sharp · 1.5 R/5 allowed
PHI
Cristopher Sánchez
2.54 ERA · sharp · 1.1 R/5 allowed
📊 Model Read vs Market
MIA to win38%mkt 32%
PHI to win62%mkt 69%
Total (model)7.2 Rline 8.5
Biggest edge: MIA ML — model 38% vs market 32% (+670pts).
💣 Home Run Watch
- Kyle Schwarber PHI — 17.8% to go yard (37 HR)
- Bryce Harper PHI — 16.8% to go yard (25 HR)
- Derek Hill PHI — 16.3% to go yard (9 HR)
- Griffin Conine MIA — 16.1% to go yard (13 HR)
🌤️ Ballpark & Weather
Citizens Bank Park · park factor 103 (#6) · Moderate rain, 73°F, wind 22 mph — Rain risk — could delay; wet ball
🔥 Hot Bats
MIA Liam Hicks .308 AVG · 18 HR · .795 OPS
PHI Kyle Schwarber .274 AVG · 37 HR · .905 OPS
🩹 Injury Report
MIA
- Anthony Bender 15-Day-IL Fracture
- Max Meyer 15-Day-IL Strain
- William Kempner 15-Day-IL Surgery
- Kyle Stowers 10-Day-IL Strain
- Andrew Nardi 60-Day-IL Fracture
PHI
- Derek Hill Day-To-Day Not Specified
- Trea Turner Day-To-Day Bruise
- Tanner Banks 60-Day-IL Strain
- Rafael Marchan 10-Day-IL Tendinitis
- Caleb Kilian 15-Day-IL Strain
📈 Recent Form
MIA 3-2 last 5 · W1
WLLWW
PHI 3-2 last 5 · L2
LLWWW
🎯 The Cobia Pick
Our read: PHI 62% to win, best value on MIA ML. See the live smart-money board, conviction, and the exact market at cobiapicks.com.
Verified smart-money picks, graded in public. 21+ · not financial advice.
FAQ
Who is pitching in Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies?
Janson Junk (4.41 ERA) starts for MIA; Cristopher Sánchez (2.54 ERA) starts for PHI.
What is the prediction for Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies?
Our model favors PHI at 62% to win, with a projected 7.2 total runs.