CobiaMiami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds — Prediction & Pitchers
Fri, Aug 14, 6:10 PM ET · Great American Ball Park
Miami Marlins
62-60
VS6:10 PM ET
Cincinnati Reds
58-62
CIN 52% on the money line; model leans UNDER 7.5.
⚾ Starting Pitchers
MIA
Sandy Alcantara
3.52 ERA · sharp · 0.7 R/5 allowed
CIN
Chase Burns
2.61 ERA · steady · 2.1 R/5 allowed
📊 Model Read vs Market
MIA to win63%mkt 49%
CIN to win37%mkt 52%
Total (model)7.3 Rline 7.5
Biggest edge: MIA ML — model 63% vs market 49% (+1470pts).
💣 Home Run Watch
- Griffin Conine MIA — 17.4% to go yard (13 HR)
- Owen Caissie MIA — 15% to go yard (13 HR)
- Heriberto Hernández MIA — 14.3% to go yard (17 HR)
- Sal Stewart CIN — 14.3% to go yard (26 HR)
🌤️ Ballpark & Weather
Great American Ball Park · park factor 108 (#2) · Clear , 77°F, wind 3 mph — Fair — no weather edge
🔥 Hot Bats
MIA Otto Lopez .312 AVG · 17 HR · .804 OPS
CIN Elly De La Cruz .268 AVG · 26 HR · .838 OPS
🩹 Injury Report
MIA
- Anthony Bender 15-Day-IL Fracture
- Max Meyer 15-Day-IL Strain
- William Kempner 15-Day-IL Surgery
- Kyle Stowers 10-Day-IL Strain
- Andrew Nardi 60-Day-IL Fracture
CIN
- Hunter Greene 60-Day-IL Surgery
- Brandon Williamson 60-Day-IL Soreness
- Spencer Steer 10-Day-IL Sprain
- Blake Dunn 60-Day-IL Surgery
- Tony Santillan 15-Day-IL Strain
📈 Recent Form
MIA 4-1 last 5 · W4
WWWWL
CIN 2-3 last 5 · L2
LLWLW
🎯 The Cobia Pick
Our read: MIA 63% to win, best value on MIA ML. See the live smart-money board, conviction, and the exact market at cobiapicks.com.
Verified smart-money picks, graded in public. 21+ · not financial advice.
FAQ
Who is pitching in Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds?
Sandy Alcantara (3.52 ERA) starts for MIA; Chase Burns (2.61 ERA) starts for CIN.
What is the prediction for Miami Marlins vs Cincinnati Reds?
Our model favors MIA at 63% to win, with a projected 7.3 total runs.