CobiaBaltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays — Prediction & Pitchers
Sun, Aug 16, 12:15 PM ET · Steinbrenner Field
Baltimore Orioles
60-63
VS12:15 PM ET
Tampa Bay Rays
74-48
TB 57% on the money line; model leans OVER 7.5.
⚾ Starting Pitchers
BAL
Trevor Rogers
4.21 ERA · steady · 2.3 R/5 allowed
TB
Freddy Peralta
5.33 ERA · struggling · 3.4 R/5 allowed
📊 Model Read vs Market
BAL to win53%mkt 43%
TB to win47%mkt 57%
Total (model)9.2 Rline 7.5
Biggest edge: BAL ML — model 53% vs market 43% (+1100pts).
💣 Home Run Watch
- Christian Encarnacion-Strand BAL — 17.4% to go yard (5 HR)
- Pete Alonso BAL — 16.9% to go yard (27 HR)
- Coby Mayo BAL — 15% to go yard (15 HR)
- Junior Caminero TB — 14.1% to go yard (35 HR)
🌤️ Ballpark & Weather
Steinbrenner Field · park factor 98 (#22) · Patchy rain nearby, 85°F, wind 8 mph — Rain risk — could delay; wet ball
🔥 Hot Bats
BAL Pete Alonso .264 AVG · 27 HR · .843 OPS
TB Junior Caminero .308 AVG · 35 HR · .910 OPS
🩹 Injury Report
BAL
- Felix Bautista 60-Day-IL Surgery
- Samuel Basallo 10-Day-IL Inflammation
- Blaze Alexander 10-Day-IL Fracture
- Ryan Helsley 60-Day-IL Inflammation
- Colin Selby 60-Day-IL Surgery
TB
- Cole Sulser 15-Day-IL Spasms
- Edwin Uceta 60-Day-IL Strain
- Jake Fraley 60-Day-IL Surgery
- Griffin Jax 15-Day-IL Soreness
- Shane McClanahan 15-Day-IL Not Specified
📈 Recent Form
BAL 3-2 last 5 · L1
LWLWW
TB 3-2 last 5 · W3
WWWLL
🎯 The Cobia Pick
Our read: BAL 53% to win, best value on BAL ML. See the live smart-money board, conviction, and the exact market at cobiapicks.com.
Verified smart-money picks, graded in public. 21+ · not financial advice.
FAQ
Who is pitching in Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays?
Trevor Rogers (4.21 ERA) starts for BAL; Freddy Peralta (5.33 ERA) starts for TB.
What is the prediction for Baltimore Orioles vs Tampa Bay Rays?
Our model favors BAL at 53% to win, with a projected 9.2 total runs.