CobiaBaltimore Orioles vs New York Mets — Prediction & Pitchers
Tue, Sep 15, 7:10 PM ET · Citi Field
Baltimore Orioles
73-78
VS7:10 PM ET
New York Mets
69-81
NYM 55% on the money line; model leans OVER 8.5.
⚾ Starting Pitchers
BAL
Shane Baz
4.05 ERA · steady · 2.2 R/5 allowed
NYM
Sean Manaea
4.79 ERA · struggling · 3.6 R/5 allowed
📊 Model Read vs Market
BAL to win61%mkt 46%
NYM to win39%mkt 55%
Total (model)8.8 Rline 8.5
Biggest edge: BAL ML — model 61% vs market 46% (+1520pts).
💣 Home Run Watch
- Pete Alonso BAL — 15.9% to go yard (35 HR)
- Coby Mayo BAL — 15.6% to go yard (23 HR)
- Christian Encarnacion-Strand BAL — 15.4% to go yard (8 HR)
- Samuel Basallo BAL — 14% to go yard (17 HR)
🌤️ Ballpark & Weather
Citi Field · park factor 97 (#26) · Clear , 63°F, wind 8 mph — Fair — no weather edge
🔥 Hot Bats
BAL Pete Alonso .268 AVG · 35 HR · .859 OPS
NYM Carson Benge .273 AVG · 25 HR · .748 OPS
🩹 Injury Report
BAL
- Christian Franklin 10-Day-IL Inflammation
- Kyle Bradish 15-Day-IL Soreness
- Ryan Helsley 60-Day-IL Inflammation
- Blaze Alexander 10-Day-IL Soreness
- Ryan Mountcastle 60-Day-IL Strain
NYM
- Devin Williams 15-Day-IL Strain
- Cionel Perez 15-Day-IL Strain
- Jorge Polanco 60-Day-IL Surgery
- Reed Garrett 60-Day-IL Surgery
- Tylor Megill 60-Day-IL Surgery
📈 Recent Form
BAL 3-2 last 5 · W2
WWLLW
NYM 2-3 last 5 · W1
WLWLL
🎯 The Cobia Pick
Our read: BAL 61% to win, best value on BAL ML. See the live smart-money board, conviction, and the exact market at cobiapicks.com.
Verified smart-money picks, graded in public. 21+ · not financial advice.
FAQ
Who is pitching in Baltimore Orioles vs New York Mets?
Shane Baz (4.05 ERA) starts for BAL; Sean Manaea (4.79 ERA) starts for NYM.
What is the prediction for Baltimore Orioles vs New York Mets?
Our model favors BAL at 61% to win, with a projected 8.8 total runs.