CobiaWhat Is a Cobia Main Pick? How Picks Are Graded in Units
Short answer: A Cobia Main pick is a Polymarket sports pick that passed a fixed smart-money rule: two or more elite wallets, or three or more dominant wallets, were behind it when Cobia first saw it. Main picks are graded in public against the final result in units, at 1 unit per pick and no fee, with the entry price shown beside the hit rate.
The rule
Cobia watches wallets on Polymarket that have a long record of winning. A pick becomes a Main pick when it meets one of two conditions at first sighting: at least two elite wallets are on the same side, or at least three dominant wallets are. MMA is never a Main pick. The rule is written down before the results come in and we do not change it after a bad week. A new idea gets a new rule with its own record.
Picks that do not meet the rule still post, still get graded, and are labelled WATCH ONLY. They carry no buy suggestion and no stake.
What gets graded
Every pick is stamped at the price where Cobia first saw it. That is the frozen entry price. When the game ends, Polymarket settles the market and we grade the pick against the real outcome, win or loss. We never delete a losing pick. Picks that could not have been traded, for example because the match was already over when we posted, are excluded and listed as such.
Why units, not percent
One unit is the stake on one pick. A win at an entry price of 70 cents returns about 0.43 units. A loss costs 1 unit. We add them up across all graded picks, at 1 unit per pick and no fee. Units show the real result without implying a bankroll. You can see the full list on the track record page.
Hit rate is not the product
A pick bought at 80 cents has to win 80 times in 100 just to break even. The entry price is the breakeven rate. A 75% hit rate at an average entry of 73 cents is slightly better than breakeven, and a 75% hit rate at 80 cents loses money. This is why we put the average entry price beside every hit rate. To work this out yourself, read how to read a prediction market price.
What the record does not show
- Backtest and live are different. The Main rule went live on October 23, 2026. Results before that date replay the same rule over earlier picks, and the site labels which is which. A replay is not the same evidence as live results.
- No claim to beat the closing line. We measured it, and our picks do not beat the close on average.
- A win probability on a pick is not a calibrated independent estimate. It sits close to the market price.
- Small samples. A few weeks of picks cannot separate skill from luck.
The Vegas line beside each pick
When a pick fires, we freeze the Bovada, Pinnacle or DraftKings price for the same side and show it next to the Polymarket price. It gives you a second view of the same game. The reasoning is in Polymarket vs sportsbook odds.
Where to see it
The track record page lists the graded picks with the sport, entry price and result, and the results calendar breaks them down by day and by week. The free daily pick, sent by email and in Discord, follows the same grading rules. If a number on a page ever does not match the pick list, the list is the source of truth.
Questions to ask of any record
Before you trust any pick service, ask four things. Were the picks stamped before the event? Are losers still visible? Is the stake rule fixed, such as 1 unit per pick? Is the entry price shown, so you can see the breakeven? If any answer is no, the record cannot be checked. We try to meet all four, and the page lists what we excluded and why.
How to use it
Treat a Main pick as one input. Check the price you can actually get, size the stake to what you can afford to lose, and read our guide to verifying any handicapper before you trust any record, including ours. Cobia is analysis only. It is not a sportsbook and holds no funds.
Key takeaways
- Main = two or more elite wallets, or three or more dominant wallets, behind the pick at first sighting.
- Every pick is graded in public in units: 1 unit per pick, no fee, losers included.
- Entry price is the breakeven, so it sits beside every hit rate.
- Results before October 23, 2026 replay the rule as a backtest. Live results are shown separately.
- We do not claim to beat the closing line.
FAQ
What is a Cobia Main pick?
A pick that met the multi-signal rule at first sighting: two or more elite wallets, or three or more dominant wallets, on the same side. MMA is excluded.
What does WATCH ONLY mean?
The pick still posts and gets graded, but it did not meet the Main rule, so it carries no buy suggestion and no stake.
What is a unit?
One unit is the stake on one pick. A win returns the profit implied by the entry price, a loss costs 1 unit, with no fee.
Are losing picks deleted?
No. Every pick is graded against the real outcome and stays on the public record. Picks that were never tradeable are excluded and listed.
Does Cobia beat the closing line?
No. We measured it and do not claim it.
Cobia grades every pick in public, losers included.
Units at 1 unit per pick, with the entry price beside the hit rate.
See the track record