CobiaMoneyline, Spread & Totals: The 3 Core Bet Types
Almost every sports bet you'll ever see is one of three things: a moneyline, a spread, or a total. Learn these three and the entire betting menu stops looking like a wall of numbers. Here's each one defined plainly, with a worked example, and a note on how they show up on Polymarket.
1. Moneyline — just pick the winner
The moneyline is the simplest bet in sports: who wins, straight up. No margin, no adjustments. If your team wins by one run or by twenty, the ticket cashes the same. Because winning is all that matters, the price reflects how likely each side is — the odds do the balancing.
Worked example
Say the Dodgers are -150 favorites against the Rockies at +130.
- Dodgers -150: you risk $150 to win $100. They're favored, so you pay a premium.
- Rockies +130: you risk $100 to win $130. They're the underdog, so you're paid more for the risk.
A minus number is the favorite (how much you risk to win $100); a plus number is the underdog (how much you win on a $100 risk). Moneylines are the go-to when you have a clear read on who wins but not by how much — common in lower-scoring sports like baseball, hockey, and soccer.
2. Point spread — bet the margin of victory
A spread handicaps the favorite so both sides are roughly a coin flip. Instead of just winning, the favorite has to win by more than a set number, and the underdog can lose by less than that number (or win outright) and still cash. The half-point (the ".5") exists so there's never a tie.
Worked example
Chiefs -6.5 vs Broncos +6.5, both priced at -110:
- Chiefs -6.5: they must win by 7 or more. Win by exactly 6 and they "won the game but lost the cover."
- Broncos +6.5: you win if they lose by 6 or fewer — or win outright.
Both sides are usually -110 because the spread is set to make the two outcomes about equally likely; the -110 on each side is just the book's vig. In baseball this same bet is called the run line (almost always ±1.5 runs); in hockey it's the puck line (±1.5 goals). Same idea, sport-specific name.
A spread and a moneyline are two views of the same game
The bigger the spread, the heavier the moneyline. A team favored by 10+ points on the spread will be a steep moneyline favorite (say -450); a "pick'em" spread of ±1 means the moneyline is close to even. If you know one, you can sanity-check the other. When they don't line up, that gap is often where value hides.
3. Totals — over/under on combined score
A total ignores who wins entirely. The book posts a number for the combined score of both teams, and you bet whether the real total lands over or under it. You're betting on pace and scoring environment, not on a side.
Worked example
An NBA game has a total of 224.5, with Over and Under both at -110:
- Over 224.5: the two teams must combine for 225 or more.
- Under 224.5: you win if they score 224 or fewer.
Final score 118-110 = 228 total → Over cashes. Totals are how you bet a read on tempo, weather, injuries to scorers, or a great-vs-weak defense — anything that shapes how much gets scored rather than who wins. The .5 again guarantees no push.
When to use each
- Moneyline — you're confident in the winner but not the margin, or you're backing a live underdog whose plus-money price you like.
- Spread / run line / puck line — you think a favorite wins comfortably, or a dog keeps it close; it turns a lopsided game into a fairer-priced bet.
- Total — your edge is about scoring conditions, not sides.
How these look on Polymarket
Polymarket is a prediction market, so every bet is framed as a Yes/No share priced from 0 to 100¢ — where the price is the market's implied probability. "Will the Dodgers win?" trading at 62¢ is a moneyline in market clothing: 62¢ ≈ a -163 favorite. Spreads and totals show up as their own markets — "Will the Chiefs win by 7+?" or "Will the game go over 224.5?" — each a Yes/No priced by the crowd. The bet types are identical; only the packaging (a share price instead of American odds) changes. Once you can read one as the other, prediction-market prices become just another odds format.
The one-line translation
A Polymarket price in cents ≈ implied probability. 62¢ = 62% = a -163 moneyline. A spread or total on Polymarket is just a Yes/No market on "does the margin/score clear this number." Same three bet types you already know.
Key takeaways
- Moneyline = pick the winner straight up; odds reflect favorite vs underdog.
- Spread (run line / puck line) = bet the margin of victory; the ±X.5 removes ties, so both sides usually sit at -110.
- Total = over/under on the combined score; you're betting scoring conditions, not a side.
- A big spread implies a heavy moneyline — they're two views of the same game.
- On Polymarket, all three appear as Yes/No shares priced 0–100¢, where the price ≈ the implied probability.
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