Cobia← cobiapicks.comCobia← cobiapicks.comThe top batters to hit a home run today, Monday, September 14, 2026. Ranked by our model: park factor × weather/wind × pitcher matchup × Statcast barrel rate. Updated 9:10 PM ET.
Build your own HR parlay free → tap these batters into a live-graded slip, climb the leaderboard, and get today's free pick. Legendary $25 first month with code FOUNDER.| 1 | Jackson MerrillSD · 25 HR · 12.9% brl | @ COL vs Tomoyuki SuganoHR park · thin air · vs HR-prone SP | 18% |
| 2 | Manny MachadoSD · 28 HR · 10.1% brl | @ COL vs Tomoyuki SuganoHR park · thin air · vs HR-prone SP | 18% |
| 3 | Fernando Tatis Jr.SD · 21 HR · 12.5% brl | @ COL vs Tomoyuki SuganoHR park · thin air · vs HR-prone SP | 18% |
| 4 | Ty FranceSD · 20 HR · 9.7% brl | @ COL vs Tomoyuki SuganoHR park · thin air · vs HR-prone SP | 18% |
| 5 | Hunter GoodmanCOL · 38 HR · 14.8% brl | @ COL vs Casey MizeHR park · thin air | 18% |
| 6 | Aaron JudgeNYY · 17 HR · 20.5% brl | @ MIN vs Dean Kremervs HR-prone SP | 18% |
| 7 | Ben RiceNYY · 38 HR · 14.4% brl | @ MIN vs Dean Kremervs HR-prone SP | 18% |
| 8 | Max MuncyLAD · 28 HR · 13.2% brl | @ CIN vs Nick LodoloHR park · vs HR-prone SP | 18% |
| 9 | Luis CampusanoSD · 7 HR · 9.2% brl | @ COL vs Tomoyuki SuganoHR park · thin air · vs HR-prone SP | 18% |
| 10 | Luis García Jr.NYY · 30 HR · 12.7% brl | @ MIN vs Dean Kremervs HR-prone SP | 18% |
| 11 | Munetaka MurakamiCWS · 31 HR · 18.7% brl | @ CLE vs Gavin Williams | 18% |
| 12 | Spencer JonesNYY · 9 HR · 15% brl | @ MIN vs Dean Kremervs HR-prone SP | 18% |
HR% = our model's projected chance the batter hits 1+ home run today.
Hot air and wind blowing out inflate home runs; cold, heavy air and wind in suppress them.
| CIN | Neutral conditions · 73°F · 5 mph NE |
| CLE | Neutral conditions · 63°F · 2 mph N |
| TOR | Roof — weather neutral |
| NYM | Wind 11mph blowing IN (suppresses) · 73°F · 11 mph N |
| CHC | Neutral conditions · 70°F · 14 mph SE |
| MIN | Neutral conditions · 56°F · 13 mph S |
| STL | Hot — ball carries · 88°F · 10 mph SE |
| COL | Thin air — ball flies · 90°F · 10 mph E |
| LAA | Wind 10mph blowing OUT (+carry) · 76°F · 10 mph S |
Every batter's home-run chance blends five inputs: the ballpark's HR factor, live weather (temperature, wind direction/speed), the opposing pitcher's home-run vulnerability, the hitter's Statcast barrel rate and recent power form. Coors Field on a warm day with the wind out is a very different bet than a cold night in a pitcher's park — the model prices that in. Unlike most "picks" pages, every Cobia call is graded in public — no deleted losers.
See tonight's board + build your parlay → cobiapicks.com · $25 first month with code FOUNDERUpdated daily. 21+ where legal · not financial advice · for entertainment purposes. Home run outcomes are inherently variable; past performance does not guarantee future results.