Cobia← cobiapicks.comCobia← cobiapicks.comThe top batters to hit a home run today, Friday, July 31, 2026. Ranked by our model: park factor × weather/wind × pitcher matchup × Statcast barrel rate. Updated 2:33 PM ET.
Build your own HR parlay free → tap these batters into a live-graded slip, climb the leaderboard, and get today's free pick. Legendary $25 first month with code FOUNDER.| 1 | Jac CaglianoneKC · 17 HR · 14.8% brl | @ COL vs Tomoyuki SuganoHR park · thin air · vs HR-prone SP | 37% |
| 2 | Hunter GoodmanCOL · 31 HR · 17% brl | @ COL vs Michael WachaHR park · thin air | 32% |
| 3 | Ben RiceNYY · 31 HR · 15.9% brl | @ CHC vs Shota Imanagawind out · vs HR-prone SP | 31% |
| 4 | Yordan AlvarezHOU · 35 HR · 18.6% brl | @ HOU vs Nathan Eovaldivs HR-prone SP | 30% |
| 5 | Esmerlyn ValdezPIT · 14 HR · 25.6% brl | @ CIN vs Hunter GreeneHR park | 29% |
| 6 | Jake BauersMIL · 18 HR · 13.6% brl | @ LAA vs Ryan Johnsonwind out · vs HR-prone SP | 29% |
| 7 | Salvador PerezKC · 15 HR · 10.3% brl | @ COL vs Tomoyuki SuganoHR park · thin air · vs HR-prone SP | 29% |
| 8 | Spencer TorkelsonDET · 20 HR · 13.9% brl | @ ATH vs Jeffrey Springsvs HR-prone SP | 29% |
| 9 | Carter JensenKC · 14 HR · 9.5% brl | @ COL vs Tomoyuki SuganoHR park · thin air · vs HR-prone SP | 28% |
| 10 | Riley GreeneDET · 15 HR · 15.3% brl | @ ATH vs Jeffrey Springsvs HR-prone SP | 27% |
| 11 | James WoodWSH · 30 HR · 21.3% brl | @ ATL vs Bryce Elderthin air | 27% |
| 12 | Dillon DinglerDET · 22 HR · 10.9% brl | @ ATH vs Jeffrey Springsvs HR-prone SP | 27% |
HR% = our model's projected chance the batter hits 1+ home run today.
Hot air and wind blowing out inflate home runs; cold, heavy air and wind in suppress them.
| CHC | Wind 12mph blowing OUT (+carry) · 81°F · 12 mph S |
| CIN | Neutral conditions · 84°F · 4 mph S |
| BAL | Neutral conditions · 84°F · 3 mph NW |
| TOR | Roof — weather neutral |
| CLE | Neutral conditions · 79°F · 9 mph NW |
| TB | Roof — weather neutral |
| NYM | Neutral conditions · 81°F · 4 mph N |
| ATL | Hot — ball carries · 86°F · 3 mph SW |
| HOU | Roof — weather neutral |
| COL | Thin air — ball flies · 79°F · 6 mph E |
| LAA | Neutral conditions · 84°F · 6 mph SW |
| ATH | Neutral conditions · 77°F · 3 mph W |
| SD | Neutral conditions · 72°F · 6 mph W |
| LAD | Neutral conditions · 72°F · 5 mph W |
| SEA | Neutral conditions · 66°F · 2 mph N |
Every batter's home-run chance blends five inputs: the ballpark's HR factor, live weather (temperature, wind direction/speed), the opposing pitcher's home-run vulnerability, the hitter's Statcast barrel rate and recent power form. Coors Field on a warm day with the wind out is a very different bet than a cold night in a pitcher's park — the model prices that in. Unlike most "picks" pages, every Cobia call is graded in public — no deleted losers.
See tonight's board + build your parlay → cobiapicks.com · $25 first month with code FOUNDERUpdated daily. 21+ where legal · not financial advice · for entertainment purposes. Home run outcomes are inherently variable; past performance does not guarantee future results.